With hundreds of millions of people in the country, crime statistics tend to become mere numbers. For example, we may hear that there have been a certain number of assaults or other crimes over a set period of time. In some ways, the sheer volume of crimes takes away from the fact that each is a separate act that has an effect on the people involved.
One of the ways to bring home the seriousness of alleged criminal behavior is to take the statistics and use them in two ways:
- Track the offenses over time.
- Compare the rate of the offense with other areas in the country, or with the country as a whole.
To give people a better understanding of the significance of criminal activity, the Federal Bureau of Investigation has attempted to take specific crimes and identify trends over time – both the change in the rate of a particular offense occurring; and a comparison of the rate in your state with the rate at which that offense occurs across the country.
The most recent figures for the comparison that we’re examining are for the 10-year period from 2011 to 2021. Obviously, simply reciting the number of times a particular offense has been reported or committed does not begin to detail the prevalence of the crime. For example, to say that there have been five times as many assaults in California than in Arizona, without more, ignores the fact that there are five times as many people in California than in our state. What the FBI has done, therefore, is helpful to those interested in relative rates of various offenses, in this case aggravated assault.
First, they have tracked the frequency of (in this case) aggravated assault over time. And second, they have compared that frequency with other states on a per capita basis, i.e., how many crimes have been reported per 100,000 people in the particular state being discussed.
When it comes to aggravated assault in Arizona, here is where things stand, at least for the 10 years ending in 2021:
- The rate of aggravated assault in Arizona rose from about 206 per 100,000 people, to more than 350. This is an increase in the rate of aggravated assault of about 35% on a per capita basis.
- The rate of aggravated assault was almost 10% higher in Arizona than in the country as a whole in 2011. By 2021, the Arizona rate was 20% higher than the national average.
However you look at it, these numbers are an indication that the rate of aggravated assault in Arizona is both higher, and is increasing far more quickly, than in the country as a whole.
Law Offices of David A. Black
40 North Central Avenue #1850
Phoenix, AZ 85004
(480) 280-8028